Operating 2026: The Great Decoupling Begins
The Operating by John Brewton Week Ahead | 1.5.2026
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Welcome to 2026. While Wall Street strategists set fourth-year-rally price targets and tech vendors descend on Las Vegas this week for CES to pitch their “agentic AI” visions, a fundamentally different reality is taking hold in corporate operating rooms across America. The signal is unmistakable: 2026 is not the year for bold reinvention. It is the year for ruthless optimization.
This week’s research reveals what I’m calling “The Great Decoupling”, a simultaneous divergence across multiple dimensions of the economy.
Markets are decoupling from sentiment.
Revenue is decoupling from headcount.
And geopolitics is decoupling from historical alliances.
For operators, understanding these fault lines isn’t academic. It’s existential.
The January/February 2026 issue of Harvard Business Review opens with a provocative question in its lead article: “Are All Those Transformations Really Necessary?” The answer, backed by brutal data, is increasingly “no.”
Here’s the core finding that should make every executive pause: 95% of organizations surveyed by Accenture in 2024 had undertaken more than two major reinventions in the previous two years. More staggering still, 61% had launched at least four major transformations in that same 24-month window. If you feel like your company has been lurching from one “strategic pivot” to another, you’re not imagining it. You’re living the statistical norm.
Bain & Company’s research compounds the bad news: 88% of these business transformations fail to achieve their original ambitions. Only 12% succeed. The culprit isn’t lack of ambition or poor strategy. It’s change fatigue, the organizational equivalent of running a marathon every quarter until your muscles simply stop responding.
The HBR article, titled “Get Off the Transformation Treadmill,” describes the syndrome perfectly: “Rather than revitalizing the organization, the constant shake-ups breed change fatigue that drains employee morale. Customers and suppliers, uncertain which strategies will survive next year’s pivot, grow wary of long-term partnerships. Investors fear greater risk and discount future earnings.”
Bain’s research reveals that 90% of the value in any transformation is created by less than 5% of roles. Yet companies spread transformation mandates across entire organizations, overloading star players and burning them out. The result? Transformation becomes an organizational tax rather than an organizational catalyst.
The playbook for 2026 is the inverse: Identify the critical 5% of roles that drive value. Staff them correctly. Leave everyone else alone to execute.
This isn’t about abandoning ambition. It’s about channeling it. Companies like Boston Scientific, cited in the HBR article, have succeeded by making “steady, integrated adjustments” rather than launching serial “transformation” programs. Think continuous improvement, not periodic revolution.
Practical Action: If your leadership team is discussing a “transformation” in Q1 2026, challenge them with this framework from the HBR research: Is this truly a response to an existential industry shift, or is it a reaction to poor recent performance? If it’s the latter, you’re about to make a $10-50 million mistake.
This is where the decoupling becomes visceral for many of us. Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to rally for a fourth consecutive year—a feat that would mark one of the longest bull runs in modern history. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have set year-end targets between 7,500 and 7,800, implying 9-11% upside. The “triple tailwind” narrative (AI productivity gains, falling interest rates, and pro-growth fiscal policy) dominates CNBC and Bloomberg.
But zoom into the operating plans of the companies in that S&P 500 index, and you find a starkly different story:
The Wall Street Journal reported on December 27 what I consider the single most important corporate strategy signal for 2026: 66% of CEOs surveyed at a Yale School of Management gathering plan to either reduce their workforce or maintain current team sizes. Only one-third plan to expand their teams.
Let that sink in. Two-thirds of America’s corporate leadership has decided that 2026 growth will come without adding people.
This isn’t a temporary hiring pause. It’s a permanent operating model shift. Companies like Shopify and Chime Financial have publicly committed to keeping their workforces flat. Shopify’s CFO Jeff Hoffmeister stated: “I don’t see us next year needing to increase head count in any way. It has been over two years we’ve been at this head count. As I look to next year, I think we can continue to be disciplined on head count.”
Even more revealing: Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke sent a memo in April 2025 stating that new hiring would be on hold unless managers could demonstrate that artificial intelligence cannot perform the required tasks. This is the inversion of traditional HR: the default answer is “no hire,” and the burden of proof falls on those arguing for human labor.
Wells Fargo’s headcount has fallen from 275,000 employees in 2019 to 210,000 today, a 24% reduction, and CEO Charlie Scharf expects the trend to continue, calling AI’s impact on staffing “extremely significant.”
IBM offers the mirror image: voluntary attrition has fallen below 2% in the U.S.—the lowest rate in 30 years. CEO Arvind Krishna told the Journal: “People aren’t looking to change jobs. That then leads to less hiring because people aren’t leaving.”
Here’s the danger lurking beneath the freeze: while average turnover has stabilized, high-performer turnover has spiked. Research cited by Wowledge shows that high-performer turnover jumped 64% year-over-year in retail and 28% in healthcare sectors.
Why? Because top talent sees the writing on the wall. When companies freeze hiring, they also freeze internal mobility. When they freeze budgets, they freeze raises. When transformation fatigue sets in, engagement craters. Your best people, the ones who have options, leave.
Fast Company’s workforce trends report highlights the brutal math: among job seekers who upskilled, 59.3% received interviews, compared to only 48.7% of those who didn’t—a 21.8% delta. In a frozen labor market, your high performers are either investing in themselves to leave, or they’re being poached by the 34% of CEOs who are hiring.
Operating Insight: HR’s mandate in 2026 has flipped from recruitment to retention. Specifically, retention of the top 5-10%. Companies must “re-recruit” their own star players or watch them walk into the arms of competitors who are still growing.
Quantum Workplace research shows that top performers deliver 400% more productivity than average employees. In complex roles, that jumps to 800%. Losing one A-player isn’t a vacancy—it’s an operational collapse.
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If companies aren’t hiring, where is the productivity coming from? The answer, plastered across every tech vendor’s 2026 roadmap, is agentic AI.
This is not your 2023 ChatGPT moment.
We’ve moved from “Wow, look what it can write!” to “Can it do my job?”
Gartner forecasts that 40% of enterprise applications will be integrated with task-specific AI agents by the end of 2026, up from less than 5% today. By 2035, agentic AI will account for 30% of enterprise application software revenue, over $450 billion.
Let’s define terms. “Agentic AI” refers to systems that can plan, act, and learn autonomously. They’re not waiting for prompts. They’re executing multi-step workflows, negotiating, and making decisions. MIT Sloan Management Review’s research found that 76% of executives now view agentic AI as a “coworker” rather than a tool.
Think about that framing. A “tool” is something you operate. A “coworker” is something you manage, delegate to, and hold accountable. The entire ontology of enterprise software is shifting.
Naviant’s 2026 automation trends report predicts that by year-end, 25% of complex customer interactions will be resolved autonomously by agentic systems, no human in the loop.
This isn’t a pilot.
This is production-scale labor substitution.
For Fortune 500 P&Ls, the implication is stark: agentic AI moves from the “innovation” budget line to the “labor cost avoidance” line. When Shopify says it can grow revenue without adding headcount, this is the mechanism.
But here’s the second-order risk that keeps me up at night, and it’s one that MIT Technology Review has been tracking: The Junior Cliff.
If agentic AI systems take over entry-level work (coding, research, document review, data entry) where do tomorrow’s senior leaders come from? AWS leadership pushed back against the idea that AI will replace junior developers, calling it a “non-starter” for long-term company building. Why? Because junior roles aren’t just labor. They’re training grounds.
A law firm that uses AI to do discovery work might save money today, but in seven years, it won’t have any associates who know how to think like litigators. A tech company that automates QA testing might ship faster today, but in a decade, it won’t have any senior engineers who understand system fragility at a cellular level.
Operating Insight: If you’re deploying agentic AI in 2026 (and you should be), you must simultaneously redesign your apprenticeship models. Create “AI-adjacent” junior roles where humans learn by supervising agents, not by doing the work agents now handle. Otherwise, you’re trading short-term efficiency for long-term capability collapse.
Let’s talk about the elephant that every CFO is quietly sweating: inventory depletion.
In 2025, companies responded to tariff threats by front-loading inventory—buying and stockpiling goods before new tariffs kicked in. Those inventories are now running out. The Economist forecasts global GDP growth will tick down to 2.4% in 2026, dragged by “American tariffs, geopolitical strife, and policy uncertainty.”
What this means: many P&Ls look deceptively healthy right now because COGS reflects pre-tariff pricing. But in Q1 and Q2 2026, as companies burn through that “ghost inventory” and start buying at post-tariff prices, gross margins will compress. Fast.
This is what I’m calling the “Depletion Shock.” It’s the inverse of a supply shock. Supply is fine. But the cost of that supply is about to spike, and it will hit financials as a sudden, discrete jump—not a gradual climb.
The USMCA Review: July 1, 2026
Mark this date on your risk calendar: July 1, 2026. That’s when the USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) undergoes its six-year review. With US protectionism ascendant and the political climate more transactional, this review puts the entire “nearshoring to Mexico” strategy at existential risk.
Deloitte’s global economic outlook notes that uncertainty around this review has already caused companies to postpone investments in Mexican manufacturing capacity. If the review results in new restrictions, tariffs, or content requirements, billions in capex decisions will need to be revisited.
Simultaneously, geopolitical analysts warn that we’ve entered an era of “Transactionalism”—where long-standing alliances (NATO, EU-US partnerships) are secondary to short-term bilateral deals. The old playbook—”rely on alliances, treaties, and international law”—is dead. The new playbook: “Have signed contracts with sovereign counterparties, and stress-test them quarterly.”
Operating Insight: If your supply chain strategy assumes USMCA stability or relies on “ally” status for favorable terms, you’re exposed. Diversify now. Build optionality into supplier contracts. And budget for a 5-10% COGS increase in H2 2026 if tariff/trade regimes shift.
This week offers three critical data points for operators trying to navigate 2026.
Monday-Tuesday: CES 2026 (Las Vegas)
AMD’s CEO Lisa Su keynotes Monday night, and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang presents Tuesday evening. Ignore the consumer gadget hype (foldable laptops, AI-powered toothbrushes). Focus on two things:
Nvidia’s “Project GR00T” updates (humanoid robotics): If this moves from demo to commercial availability, it signals that industrial automation budgets are shifting from software to physical AI. That’s a capex regime change.
Siemens’ “Industrial Metaverse” keynote: If digital twins move from “pilot” to “production scale,” it confirms that supply chain and operations leaders are betting on simulation over physical redundancy.
Wednesday: Constellation Brands Earnings (After Market)
Constellation Brands (Corona, Modelo) is the consumer discretionary canary. The key metric isn’t revenue—it’s volume growth vs. price increases. If they grew revenue by raising prices while volume dropped, the consumer is tapping out. That confirms the “gloomy consumer” thesis and contradicts the “markets rally” narrative.
Friday, January 9: US Jobs Report (8:30 AM ET)
This is the main event. December Non-Farm Payrolls drop Friday morning, and they will set the tone for the Fed’s January 28 meeting.
<100k jobs added: Recession fear returns. Equities fall. Rate cuts accelerate.
>200k jobs added: “Good news is bad news.” Inflation concerns return. Rate cuts delayed. Equities fall.
~150k jobs (Goldilocks): Soft landing confirmed. Equities rally.
Also Friday: Conagra Brands earnings (Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Slim Jim). This is the low-to-middle-income consumer proxy. Are shoppers “trading down” to private label? If yes, the consumer depletion thesis is confirmed.
Let me close with the most important operating thesis for 2026:
The boring stuff is where you’ll win.
While your competitors chase “agentic AI” pilots and argue about return-to-office mandates, you can create alpha by doing three unglamorous things better than anyone else:
Retention of your top 10%: If high-performer turnover is spiking 28-64% across industries, retaining your A-players is worth more than any “transformation.”
Inventory management: Audit your COGS assumptions. Are they hiding pre-tariff pricing? Budget for the depletion shock.
Unit economics: In a zero-headcount-growth world, the only way to grow is to improve the productivity of existing resources. That means ruthlessly cutting low-ROI activities.
Don’t let the noise of “transformation,” “agentic breakthroughs,” or “market rallies” distract you from the silence of your depleting inventory, your departing A-players, or your bloated cost structure.
2026 is the year of operational discipline.
The Great Decoupling has begun. The winners will be those who decouple from the hype and couple tightly to execution.
— John Brewton —
Founder & Author: Operating by John Brewton
Final note: Always be sure to review the appendixes for each article to find plenty of valuable additional reading and insights to use in the week ahead.
John Brewton documents the history and future of operating companies at Operating by John Brewton. He is a graduate of Harvard University and began his career as a Phd. student in economics at the University of Chicago. After selling his family’s B2B industrial distribution company in 2021, he has been helping business owners, founders and investors optimize their operations ever since. He is the founder of 6A East Partners, a research and advisory firm asking the question: What is the future of companies? He still cringes at his early LinkedIn posts and loves making content each and everyday, despite the protestations of his beloved wife, Fabiola, at times.
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Appendix: Full Source List
Corporate Strategy & Transformation
Harvard Business Review (Jan/Feb 2026) - “Get Off the Transformation Treadmill”
Harvard Business Review (Jan/Feb 2026) - “Are All Those Transformations Really Necessary?”
Harvard Business Review (Jan/Feb 2026) - Full Issue Table of Contents
Bain & Company (Dec 30, 2024) - “88% of Business Transformations Fail to Achieve Their Original Ambitions”
Bain & Company - “Getting the Most Out of Your Technology Transformation”
The Hiring Freeze / Labor Market
Wall Street Journal (Dec 27, 2025) - “Companies Are Outlining Plans for 2026. Hiring Isn’t One of Them.”
Wall Street Journal (April 7, 2025) - “Shopify Says No New Hires Unless AI Can’t Do the Job”
WhalesBook (Dec 27, 2025) - “AI & Economy Freeze: Big Companies Slash 2026 Hiring Plans”
The Independent (Dec 27, 2025) - “Big Companies Aren’t Making Plans to Hire in 2026”
Workforce Trends & Retention
Wowledge (Jan 3, 2026) - “2026 HR Trends: How to Bridge the Gap in Models and Future Needs”
Fast Company (Dec 24, 2025) - “Key Workforce Trends to Watch in 2026”
Fast Company (Dec 29, 2025) - “Why 2026 Will Be the Year Employee Well-Being Becomes a Priority”
Quantum Workplace - “Employee Retention Trends: Stop Reacting, Start Predicting”
Market Outlook & Economics
Wall Street Journal (Jan 3, 2026) - “Wall Street Expects the Market to Keep Rallying in 2026 Despite Lofty Valuations”
Market Minute (Dec 28, 2025) - “The Quadruple Crown: Wall Street Sets Sights on a Historic Fourth Year of Gains”
Morgan Stanley (Nov 18, 2025) - “2026 Economic Outlook: Moderate Growth”
Deloitte (Dec 21, 2025) - “Global Economic Outlook 2026”
Agentic AI & Technology Trends
Gartner/MIT Sloan ME (Aug 31, 2025) - “Agentic AI Set to Reshape 40% of Enterprise Applications by 2026”
MIT Sloan Management Review (Nov 17, 2025) - “The Emerging Agentic Enterprise: How Leaders Must Navigate a New Age of AI”
MIT Sloan (Oct 31, 2025) - “AI Agents, Tech Circularity: What’s Ahead for Platforms in 2026”
MIT Technology Review (Nov 20, 2025) - “Designing Digital Resilience in the Agentic AI Era”
MIT Technology Review (June 12, 2025) - “Are We Ready to Hand AI Agents the Keys?”
MIT Technology Review (July 3, 2025) - “Don’t Let Hype About AI Agents Get Ahead of Reality”
MIT Sloan Management Review (Sept 15, 2025) - “Agentic AI at Scale: Redefining Management for a Superhuman Workforce”
MIT Sloan Management Review (Nov 11, 2025) - “Agentic AI: Nine Essential Questions”
Naviant (May 26, 2025) - “2026’s Top 5 Intelligent Automation Trends”
Idaho Business Review (Nov 18, 2025) - “Agentic AI Emerges as the Next Big Leap Beyond Chatbots”
Geopolitics & Trade
The Economist (Nov 12, 2025) - “Ten Business Trends for 2026, and Forecasts for 16 Industries”
The Economist (Nov 9, 2025) - “The Contours of 21st-Century Geopolitics Will Become Clearer in 2026”
Financial Times (Jan 2, 2026) - “Five Big Finance Questions for 2026”
LinkedIn (Jan 4, 2026) - “Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2026”
LinkedIn APCO (Sept 18, 2025) - “USMCA Review: How to Navigate the Changing Trade Landscape”
LinkedIn (Dec 10, 2025) - “Mapping the New Geopolitics of Tariffs in 2026”
Account-to-Account Payments
The Lacroix Times (July 2, 2023) - “Account to Account Payments in the U.S.”
Plaid (May 11, 2025) - “The Future of Account-to-Account (A2A) Payments in the US”
VoPay Blog (June 24, 2025) - “Account-to-Account (A2A) Payments - Understanding Their Impact”
Week Ahead: Earnings & Economic Calendar
TipRanks (Jan 4, 2026) - “Earnings This Week – January 5-9, 2026”
Kiplinger (Jan 1, 2026) - “Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week (Jan. 5-Jan. 9)”
Trading Economics (Jan 1, 2026) - “Week Ahead - Jan 5th”
Phemex (Dec 28, 2025) - “U.S. December Non-Farm Payrolls to Be Released on January 9, 2026”
Federal Reserve Board - “January 2026 Calendar”
Financial Juice (Jan 2, 2026) - “Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 5th - 9th January (US)”
CES 2026
Mashable (Jan 5, 2026) - “CES 2026 Live Updates: Latest News, Announcements, Cool Finds”
Geo TV (Jan 4, 2026) - “CES 2026’s Conference Schedule: Find Out When to Watch Keynotes from NVIDIA, AMD, Intel”
Yahoo Finance (Jan 2, 2026) - “CES 2026: What to Expect from the Tech Industry’s Biggest Show of the Year”
PC Venus (Dec 31, 2025) - “CES 2026: Dates, Keynotes, Venues, AI and What You Need to Know”
Techloy (Jan 1, 2026) - “CES 2026 Schedule: Keynotes, Media Days, Product Launches and More”
You hit on something that I have often wondered is how does the next generation of knowledge workers gain the experience to take over and the idea of this workforce overseeing and working hand in hand with the AI agents sounds like the right solution.
When markets, people, and geopolitics decouple, strategy shifts from vision to execution. Optimization becomes survival, and operators who see the fault lines early gain the edge.